Our selective is trying to regain the 11,000 points, at a time when many investors are waiting to buy before future rises. On the opportunities of the Ibex 35 and companies and sectors that are currently enjoying a good moment, we speak with Marc Ribes and Gisela Turazzini, founders of Blackbird Wealth Management.
They have participated in the Live Trading Day that has been held recently in Barcelona, from where they advise to diversify our investments and be very precise when choosing stocks . They weigh Europe on the USA and consider that the national stock market is in good health.
Question. The moment we live right now in the Ibex 35, could it be considered a bubble?
Answer. Marc: No, if we consider that a bubble is an overvaluation in prices, an excitement that usually occurs at a stage of a bull market, overbought, a market that has taken over the complacency. There are neither the factors of the bubble nor the overvaluation of prices.
Q. Are we in a correction phase technically speaking from the first quarter rises? Do we have to worry?
R. Gisela: As a result of the returns we have had in the first months of the year, although now we see that they correct indexes like the German Dax, we would still have a good year at European level. We have great confidence in Europe and if we start talking, as you said before the bubble, in other fields and in other markets there are ratios and revaluations much higher than in Europe. It is time to wait a little and bring up one of the virtues of the trader is inactivity. Stay in the rear until the technicians define themselves.
Q. So, does the economic recovery in Europe, which seems to be moving forward, offer opportunities in equities?
R. Marc: We overweight Europe vs. USA. Sometimes the way we value the market is based on the spread, the difference between what the bond pays us and what the dividend pays us, which in the end is the essence of the investment. And in this case, what we have to take into account is whether the low profitability of the bonds allows high valuations of the shares for a natural reason of the economy or if the cause is the expansive monetary policy.
P. It is evident that the European Central Bank is affecting fixed income …
R. Marc: Certainly, but it is also evident that the economic improvement is starting: banks start lending money to entrepreneurs and that “almost, almost” that we were seeing in recent years seems to finally become a “start” “
Also read: Learn to operate in the financial markets with Marc Ribes, Gisela Turazzini, Yuri Rabassa …
Q. And the weakness of the currency?
R. Marc: This is what will allow us to grow in Europe more than in the US. The weakness of the euro will improve exports. All these factors together make the markets of the old continent more attractive than the American stock market that is more mature and there we see more risks.
Q. You are talking about the fixed-income market that has caused some recent upheaval, but even so, experts are still betting on bonds. What is your opinion?
R. Marc: The only asset that we see adequate in fixed income are the short-term bonds, because the possible rise in interest rates in the US together with the devaluation that we are seeing in the Euro / Dollar, despite the correction of these days, added to the monetary expansion in Europe, would have to end up being positive for the dollar.
Q. Do you position yourself in favor of overcoming the parity between the euro and the dollar?
R. Marc: We will be able to see the Euro / Dollar around the level of 0.96 and above due to the strength of the dollar, which for other reasons we believe we can take advantage of short-term bond yields.
Q. And when will we reach the 1 to 1 change?
R. Gisela: We always say that market times must be respected. We are in a very turbulent macroeconomic environment in which there are also many political decisions in between and that will mark the course in the issue of parity the Euro / Dollar – in which I am very in agreement with Marc. This context will also provide us with opportunities to take advantage of these infomation flows that the market is giving us today.
The macro conjuncture can allow us to acquire a total return and that is why we make a discretionary trading in the whole market.
Q. And if we talk about diversifying, do you advise specific sectors or values?
R. Gisela: It’s about having your eyes set on all markets: currencies, fixed income, equities.
Marc: We are at the moment that being very precise when choosing values is something that we have in mind, what we call “stock picking”. The market is very diverse and we are observing specific companies, with specific problems, such as the case of OHL or FCC, which are companies that are going down a lot, and then we find companies that are doing very well and, suddenly, a bad news generates a lot of volatility.
You have to be very precise, you have to avoid those companies that quote in weakness even though, in the case of OHL, we believe it is an excellent business, but the market does not understand it that way.
P. We have returned to the Spanish stock market. How do you see it as a whole?
R. Marc: We believe that it is attractive, saving these cases, the construction and electrical sector would be avoidable, but the rest we believe is going up quite well. Around 75% of companies the Ibex go up and that is always a sign of good health.
Gisela: You have to be outside of construction companies and electricity companies, but there are a lot of investment opportunities in Spain and particularly in this 75% of companies that are going up, which means that there is still potential for revaluation.
Q. Do you dare to predict on what levels we will move in the next six months in our selective?
R. Marc: We do not like to set objectives because it is a contradiction trying to limit the results of something that is practically impossible to know. That said, we believe that the potential is broad.
P. Too many uncertainties …
R. Marc: It will mark us what could happen in Greece, the look that the markets will take if the bubble explodes in the US, where we do believe that there is, what can happen in the bond market. All these factors can determine a lot in the process.
Gisela: We have so many open foci that we have to be patient and build our operations, not depending on the hypothesis, but on the events.
P. To put some level …
R. Marc : We believe that the 12,000 will be exceeded.
Gisela: In the US, we believe that in the S & P the 2040 points would be a very interesting level to take into account so that we know about the turn we are expecting, but we are not impatient and we are going to give the market time.